Fighting reignites in Ethiopia, deepening regional tensions with Eritrea and Egypt
Armed conflict between Ethiopia's government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) escalated dramatically as rebels captured towns in the Afar region before government forces counterattacked and retook the Tigrayan capital Mekelle. The crisis severed diplomatic relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and prompted expulsions of Egyptian officials, reviving concerns about the return to large-scale conflict. Ethiopia's military commander alleged that Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt were supporting the rebels, accusations that intensified regional tensions.
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The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) launched a renewed offensive into Ethiopia's Afar and Amhara regions, capturing the town of Erebti and threatening to advance towards Afdera. The offensive displaced approximately 150,000 people and endangered critical supply routes from Djibouti, which account for nearly all of Ethiopia's fuel imports. Ethiopia's army chief publicly accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing the rebel group, claims that Eritrea initially did not directly address.
In response to the escalating tensions, Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled ten Eritrean diplomats from Addis Ababa. Eritrea subsequently severed all diplomatic ties with Ethiopia. Separately, Ethiopia expelled an Egyptian diplomat, further worsening relations that were already strained over Ethiopia's construction of a major dam on the Nile River. Drone strikes, believed to target government facilities, struck Addis Ababa overnight, including an area near the national defence force headquarters, occurring days after drone flights had been prohibited over the capital.
The military situation shifted within days. Ethiopian government forces and allied militias recaptured the towns of Abala, Erebti and Megale in Afar, followed by the recovery of Mekelle's airport and then Mekelle itself, the capital of Tigray. The TPLF announced it had "temporarily moved out" to continue operations from another location. Severe telecommunications disruptions in Tigray complicated independent verification of events, and residents expressed concern about potential looting during the disorder. The African Union, based in Addis Ababa, called for "maximum restraint" from all parties, warning that the renewed fighting endangered the 2022 peace agreement and risked drawing neighbouring countries into the conflict.
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