Iran maintains Hormuz blockade as war enters seventh month and sanctions extend to 2031
Seven months into the conflict, Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz by striking and detaining commercial vessels, despite US claims that shipping volumes have reached a six-month high. President Trump announced expectations that the war would end within the year and signed legislation extending sanctions on Iran through 2031. Iran held its largest pro-government rally since the war began and set seven conditions for resuming ceasefire negotiations.
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President Donald Trump stated early in the week that he expected the war centred on Iran, now in its seventh month, to end this year, possibly after November's midterm elections, with predictions that petrol prices would fall sharply. Iran claimed to have shot down a US drone over the Strait of Hormuz. The situation remained volatile: two sailors went missing after the tanker El Gaia was attacked near Oman's Musandam Peninsula, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards struck and detained the Togo-flagged tanker Trend, citing its passage as illegal under Tehran's blockade, which aims to impose tolls on shipping through the waterway.
Despite the tensions, US Central Command reported that oil, cargo and LNG shipments through Hormuz had reached their highest level in six months. More than a billion barrels of oil were transported and over 2,000 commercial vessels were protected in the past two months, with mines cleared from the main transit lanes. Iran, however, staged its largest pro-government demonstration since the war began, with hundreds of thousands rallying in Tehran and over 600,000 volunteers registering for a new civil defence campaign. Officials indicated that Iran's Supreme National Security Council had set seven undisclosed conditions for resuming ceasefire negotiations with Washington.
President Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, extending Iran sanctions to 2031 and authorising tariffs of up to 100% on countries purchasing Russian oil or gas. Iranian officials condemned this action as economic terrorism. The global energy market reacted: the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a 31-year high of 1.25%, citing inflation driven by rising energy costs and a weak yen linked to the Hormuz disruption.
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