Trump predicts Iran war will end this year as Strait of Hormuz tensions rise

President Donald Trump stated on Sunday that he expected the war centred on Iran, now in its seventh month, to end this year, possibly only after the American midterm elections in November. He predicted that petrol prices would then fall sharply and suggested that the United States could retain control over Iranian oil fields, comparing the arrangement to previous American energy deals elsewhere.

The conflict began on 28 February 2026 when the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran. It has continued to disrupt shipping and energy markets through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for global crude exports. On Monday, Iranian officials said their forces had destroyed an advanced American drone over the strait. According to CNBC, this claim has not been independently verified by Washington, and the Pentagon has not commented publicly on the incident.

Gulf state leaders have been attempting to negotiate directly with Iran to restore the flow of oil through the region. However, Iran's foreign ministry stated that Tehran will not cooperate until Washington agrees to its conditions, according to reporting cited by WORLD Radio. The International Energy Agency noted that Gulf and Russian refineries together supplied nearly half of the world's seaborne diesel as recently as February. This supply chain is now under strain from both the Iran conflict and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining infrastructure.

Analysts remain divided over how much oil is actually moving through the strait despite Trump's insistence that it remains open. The Washington Post noted persistent uncertainty over shipping volumes given the risks still faced by tankers in the corridor.